Yesterday’s War Games, Today’s Reality: The Growing Use of AI Drones

Drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), have gone from being fantasy devices in science fiction to essential tools used by militaries and governments around the world. Once thought of as far-fetched war machines found only in futuristic novels and films, AI-enabled drones are now an integral part of modern warfare and defense technology.

In this comprehensive guide, we’ll explore the evolution of drone technology, from rudimentary remotely operated reconnaissance craft to highly sophisticated autonomous attack drones equipped with artificial intelligence. We’ll look at how drones are transforming combat, defense, and security in the 21st century.

A Brief History of Military Drone Technology

While unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) seem like something out of a sci-fi flick, the concept has been around for over a century. The genesis of drones goes back to the mid-1800s when Austrians attached bombs to balloons and floated them over Venice.

The Early Days of Drones

In 1918, the US military developed the Kettering Bug, an automated biplane built for ground attack missions. This early drone had gyroscopes and barometers to maintain stability and altitude.

During World War II, militaries began using drones regularly for target practice and as decoys to attract enemy fire. Nazi Germany deployed the V-1 flying bomb, an early cruise missile that allowed some level of remote control.

In the decades after WWII, militaries continued expanding their development of reconnaissance and surveillance drones like the AQM-34 Ryan Firebee. Used extensively in Vietnam, the Firebee could fly at high altitudes autonomously or via remote control.

UAVs Come Into Their Own

By the 1980s, rapid advancement in technology led to increased adoption of UAVs, particularly by Israel and the US. In the 1982 Bekaa Valley Turkey Shoot, Israel effectively deployed UAVs for real-time surveillance and intelligence gathering.

The use of Predator drones equipped with Hellfire missiles in the Balkans conflict in the 1990s marked another key advancement for weaponized UAVs. Drones like the Predator offered militaries new capabilities for targeted strikes without endangering pilots.

After 9/11, the US military began expanding drone fleets substantially. Drones like the MQ-9 Reaper conducted reconnaissance and strikes in the war against terror in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and other regions. Now an integral part of modern warfare, drones enable surveillance and attacks from thousands of miles away.

Key Capabilities Driving Increased Adoption of Military Drones

A number of important capabilities explain the rapid rise of drones for defense, national security, and military applications in recent years:

Persistence and Endurance

Unlike manned aircraft, drones do not have human limitations on how long they can stay aloft. Military UAVs are restricted only by mechanical factors like fuel supply and the durability of components. Multi-day flight times provide continuity in surveillance that manned aircraft cannot match.

Operational Risk Reduction

Using unmanned vehicles reduces the risk to human pilots during dangerous missions like airstrikes, aerial reconnaissance over hostile regions, and suppression of enemy air defenses. Keeping pilots out of harm’s way has been a major incentive for militaries to invest in drones.

Versatile Deployment and Employment

UAVs enable diverse mission sets from intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to electronic warfare (EW) and precision strikes. Larger UAVs can take off from conventional runways while smaller drones can launch from vehicle mounted platforms in the field for rapid response.

Lower Costs than Traditional Aircraft

Acquisition and operating costs are lower for drones than manned fighter jets. For instance, an MQ-9 Reaper costs around $16.9 million vs. $85 million for an F-35 fighter. Fuel, maintenance, and training costs are also typically lower for drones. Cost advantages multiply as drone manufacturing scales up.

Cueing Manned Assets and Weapons

Drones act as force multipliers by playing a key role in cueing and targeting for manned aircraft, ground forces, naval vessels, and land-based precision weapons. UAVs expand situational awareness and engagement opportunities.

The Expanding Role of AI and Autonomy in Military Drones

Artificial intelligence and autonomy are taking on greater importance in cutting-edge UAV capabilities:

Enhanced Processing of Sensor Data

Onboard AI technology rapidly synthesizes and analyzes sensor data like imagery and communications intelligence. This allows faster, smarter assessment from multiple data sources.

Swarm Technology

Controlling drone swarms that can autonomously coordinate amongst squad members provides superior ISR and combined firepower. Swarming allows drones to quickly assemble into optimal configurations as threats emerge.

Target Recognition and Acquisition

Algorithms for visual recognition of potential targets continue to improve. AI enables more accurate discrimination of legitimate from illegitimate targets with less need for human intervention.

Collision and Obstacle Avoidance

More advanced autonomy algorithms allow drones to navigate contested domains while avoiding ground obstacles, terrain, and hostile aircraft and weapons fire without human piloting.

Communications and Bandwidth Optimization

AI helps compress and prioritize data communications to maximize the value of bandwidth. This allows focusing bandwidth on the most critical data.

Tactical Maneuvering and Evasion

Drones like the XQ-58A Valkyrie are developing tactics to penetrate contested airspace, evade threats, and maneuver in close combat using artificial intelligence.

Current and Near Future Military Drone Capabilities

Multiple drones with expanded capabilities are coming online to address modern defense challenges:

| Drone Model | Key Features and Armaments |
|-|-|
| General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper | Long endurance hunter-killer UAV, capacity for Hellfire missiles and JDAMs |
| Northrop Grumman X-47B | Carrier-based stealth unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) |
| Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie | Low-cost stealthy Loyal Wingman-type UCAV |
| Lockheed Martin Avenger | Next-gen stealth UAV for contested environment penetration |
| Textron RQ-7 Shadow | Group 2 tactical UAV with EO/IR, laser designation, communications relay |
| Parrot Anafi USA | Group 1 SUAS with 32x zoom camera, security algorithms |
| AeroVironment Switchblade | Lethal miniature UAS, tube-launched loitering missile |

Larger fixed-wing drones like the Reaper and UCAVs offer longer range, more payload capacity, and greater survivability. Smaller Group 1-3 craft provide tactical ISR and light strike options.

Swarming technology networks Group 1-3 drones in synergistic teams to locate and engage threats across a wide area. AI helps swarms operate cohesively.

AI and Autonomous Drone Concerns: Risks to Address

While drones with AI enhancements offer clear military advantages, experts also highlight areas of concern:

Proliferation Risks

There are fears that AI-enabled attack drone technology could proliferate worldwide, falling into the hands of dictatorial regimes, terror groups, or criminal organizations.

Limited oversight of commercial drones and components creates risks of weapons profusion that must be managed.

Escalation Risks

There are concerns that having ultra-fast sensor-shooter loops mediated by AI could lead to accidental escalations or make leaders more prone to use force with reduced political risk.

Legal and Ethical Issues

Use of autonomous lethal force functions without human control raises legal, ethical, and moral questions that must be grappled with to align technology with humanitarian values.

Cyber Security Vulnerabilities

Remote hijacking of military drones or disrupting their command and control systems could have dangerous consequences. Robust cyber security is essential.

Arms Race Instability

Adversaries like China and Russia are expected to respond to US and allied AI drone capabilities with their own advances, fueling instability. Restraint and de-escalation measures are needed.

While tricky to address, these risks should not detract from incorporating drones enhanced with AI responsibly into modern defense technology given the operational advantages.

6 Key Questions About AI Enabled Military Drones

AI and autonomy are transforming drones into even more potent weapons. Let’s look at some of the top questions surrounding this growing application of AI technology:

1. Will autonomous drones ever be able to legally make lethal decisions?

Currently drones with air-to-ground attack capabilities have humans making the final lethal decision. However, militaries are pursuing research into autonomous engagement functionality to increase speed and synchronize attacks. There are calls to ban fully independent drone weapon systems given legal, moral, and accountability issues. Whether autonomous lethal drones could comply with laws of war and humanitarian norms remains unsettled.

Pros:

• Faster sensor-shooter loops
• Reduced communications vulnerabilities
• More coordinated and effective attacks

Cons:

• Legal and ethical issues
• Lack of human judgement and accountability
• Escalation risks

There is opposition to autonomous lethal drones without human control. But if legal and ethical issues can be adequately addressed, such capabilities may eventually be permitted in certain situations like immediate defense where human judgement is impossible.

2. What are the advantages of drone swarming using autonomous coordination?

Drone swarms involve groups of small unmanned systems like quadcopters autonomously collaborating based on shared data awareness. AI enables drone swarms to dynamically allocate sensing, processing, and attack roles.

Pros:

• Flexible distributed reconnaissance over vast areas
• Overwhelm contested enemy defenses
• Greater resilience and redundancy if some drones are shot down

Cons:

• Complex technology integration challenges
• Higher bandwidth requirements
• Risk of loss of control over entire swarm

With sufficient communications and autonomous control, drone swarms provide military forces with superior, resilient ISR and attacks across expansive battlespaces. But ensuring robust functionality as swarm scale increases poses technology hurdles requiring careful testing.

3. How susceptible are military drones to hacking and GPS spoofing?

UAVs rely extensively on GPS and networking for navigation, control, and communications. These vulnerabilities create risks that enemies could jam or spoof GPS to misdirect drones or hack into command and control systems to disable or take over unmanned vehicles.

Countering these threats requires capabilities like:

• Encrypted, non-jammable, anti-spoofing data links
• Autonomous navigation using inertial, terrain recognition systems
• Cyber security hardening of drone software
• Resilient swarm architectures and inter-drone networks

Addressing vulnerabilities to electronic warfare attacks is crucial for realizing the full potential of military drones. Protecting UAVs from hacking and GPS spoofing remains an ongoing priority.

4. What risks do armed drones pose in terms of conflict escalation?

Armed drones enable low-risk preemptive strikes, targeted assassinations, and attacks deep in enemy territory with minimal danger to personnel. Some analysts caution this could lead civilian leaders and military commanders to favor force over diplomacy in addressing provocations and disputes.

However, escalation depends on broader military strategies and doctrines that leaders choose to pursue. Drones could enable more limited, precise strikes that de-escalate crises vs. risking larger conflicts. With prudent policies limiting drone attacks to clear threats, the escalation dangers may prove manageable.

5. How extensively could AI-enabled drones replace manned fighter jets?

UCAVs like the X-47B point to a future where stealthy combat drones take on many missions currently performed by manned jets like air superiority, suppression of enemy air defenses, and deep strike. AI can guide autonomous evasive maneuvers.

But some experts argue manned fighters continue to have advantages:

• Human ingenuity responding to unanticipated situations
• Higher tolerance for weather extremes, turbulence
• More flexible rules of engagement interpretations

Rather than wholesale replacing manned aircraft, smart integration of drones and AI-enabled systems as force multipliers will optimize air power capabilities. But the roles drones can responsibly take on will continue expanding.

6. What could increased use of “kamikaze drones” mean for future warfare?

Loitering attack munitions like the Harpy and Switchblade function essentially as kamikaze drones. They provide light precision strike options and can overwhelm enemy defenses through saturation attacks. Some envision massive swarms of cheap kamikaze drones that carry small payloads becoming a common battlefield terror weapon.

More likely, kamikaze drones will fill specific tactical niches for infantry and special forces needing rapid, localized firepower without extensive collateral damage. But defending against kamikaze drone swarm threats will necessitate developing effective detection, interception, and counter-swarm tactics.

Conclusion: Smart Integration of AI Critical for Drone Warfare

Drones have evolved remarkably from their origins as remote control targets to essential components of modern high-tech military forces. AI and autonomy are transforming unmanned capabilities even further to address the demands of 21st century warfare.

But risks around proliferating autonomous lethal systems require careful oversight. And unmanned technologies must be thoughtfully integrated with manned systems and human warfighters.

With prudent regulations and doctrines guiding drone and AI development, these transformative technologies offer enhanced military power, speed, and precision. The future of drones promises ever more sophisticated applications of AI to dominate the next frontiers of warfare. But grounded in ethical underpinnings, AI-enabled unmanned systems can help militaries uphold security and humanitarian values.

Smart leveraging of AI-enhanced drones for defense without unleashing instability remains imperative. Yesterday’s war games have become today’s reality. We must ensure this reality leads to a more secure tomorrow.